Buildings

EU must pick up speed on climate action, net zero watchdog warns

dany — Mon, 26 Jun 2023 16:08:05 +0000

EU must pick up speed on climate action, net zero watchdog warns dany Mon, 06/26/2023 - 17:08

Demand for building blocks and bricks of cement or concrete

paula — Thu, 15 Jun 2023 19:09:42 +0000

Demand for building blocks and bricks of cement or concrete paula Thu, 06/15/2023 - 20:09

The demand for building blocks and bricks of cement or concrete increased by 1% per year (trendline) between 2016 and 2021. Although there is no target on this indicator, this increasing trend is not aligned with the need for decreasing material demand for new buildings floor area, and their related embodied emissions.

Wrong direction

Buildings

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Definition

The production, import and export at the EU level of building blocks and bricks of cement or concrete is published by Eurostat. The demand for building blocks and bricks is approximated by summing the annual production and the imports minus the exports.

GHG emissions from direct buildings energy use

paula — Thu, 15 Jun 2023 19:08:00 +0000

GHG emissions from direct buildings energy use paula Thu, 06/15/2023 - 20:08

The data shows past progress of 5 Mt CO2e between 2016 and 2021. The target is a 60% reduction of buildings GHG emissions between 2015 and 2030. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2021 and 2030 need to be 7.5 times faster than the past rate of progress.

Far too slow

Buildings

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Definition

Buildings direct emissions are the aggregate GHG emissions of the category commercial/institutional and residential buildings. Those emissions do not capture the indirect emissions (electricity and energy production) nor the embedded emissions of buildings material.

Share of renewable energy in heating and cooling

paula — Thu, 15 Jun 2023 18:17:32 +0000

Share of renewable energy in heating and cooling paula Thu, 06/15/2023 - 19:17

Data show an annual increase of 0.6%-points between 2016 and 2021 which is far too slow to reach 100% for phasing-out fossil fuels by 2040. The required annual change between 2021 and 2030 needs to increase to 4.1%-points which is 6.8 times faster than the current rate of progress.

Far too slow

Buildings

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Definition

The share of renewable energy used for heating and cooling includes solar thermal, geothermal energy, ambient heat captured by heat pumps, solid, liquid, and gaseous biofuels, and the renewable part of waste.

Deep renovation rate

paula — Thu, 15 Jun 2023 18:13:57 +0000

Deep renovation rate paula Thu, 06/15/2023 - 19:13

There is not enough data to derive a trend but the average annual amount of deep renovation for the period 2012-2016 was only around 0.2%. This means it is only about one fifth of all renovations and highlights that such “one-off’ deep renovations are not common practice.
There is no official target for deep renovation, but historical deep renovation activity is far from the level required to reach the 2030 emissions targets.

Insufficient data

Buildings

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Definition

The deep renovation rate comprises all renovations with primary energy savings above 60%.

Average renovation rate

paula — Thu, 15 Jun 2023 18:12:58 +0000

Average renovation rate paula Thu, 06/15/2023 - 19:12

There is not enough data to derive a trend but the average renovation rate was estimated close to 1% in for the period 2012-2016. To reach the 2030 target of 2-3%, the rate has to double.

Insufficient data

Buildings

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Definition

As renovation depths are classified based on achieved primary energy savings, the average (or weighted) renovation rate describes the annual reduction of primary energy consumption achieved through the sum of energy renovations of all depths.

Investments for energy renovation

paula — Thu, 15 Jun 2023 18:11:12 +0000

Investments for energy renovation paula Thu, 06/15/2023 - 19:11

The annual investments in renovation increased by 5% or 13 billion EUR per year between 2012 and 2016 which is going in the right direction. However, to analyse this indicator, there is a need for more complete, reliable and recent data.

Insufficient data

Buildings

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Definition

The average annual energy-related investments in renovation covers both the private and public investments.

Finance

Energy consumed for heating and cooling related to living space

paula — Thu, 15 Jun 2023 18:08:18 +0000

Energy consumed for heating and cooling related to living space paula Thu, 06/15/2023 - 19:08

The annual decrease of the energy consumption for heating and cooling was 1.5 kWh/m2 which is on track towards reaching the target from the Renovation Wave of -18% in 2030 compared to 2015 level.

On track

Buildings

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Definition

The average final energy consumption for space heating and cooling is obtained by dividing the total consumption for space heating and cooling by the total buildings area. Final energy consumption for space heating (resp. cooling) is normalized with the heating degree days (resp. cooling degree days) to smooth out climate variability.

Average space per capita

paula — Thu, 15 Jun 2023 18:05:09 +0000

Average space per capita paula Thu, 06/15/2023 - 19:05

The average space per capita increased by 0.25 m²/capita per year between 2011 and 2015. Although there is no target on this indicator, the growing historical trend is not aligned with the need to reduce heating and cooling services.

Wrong direction

Buildings

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Definition

The average space per capita is the ratio between the total surface of buildings (residential and services) and the population.

State of EU progress to climate neutrality

dany — Tue, 18 Apr 2023 08:50:45 +0000

State of EU progress to climate neutrality dany Tue, 04/18/2023 - 09:50

The assessment of progress towards climate neutrality shows that the EU is moving in the right direction, but the pace is too slow. The transition to climate neutrality is essential for ensuring a liveable future.

June 2023

Adaptation

Agrifood

Carbon Dioxide Removal

Just and Inclusive Transition

Thomas Pellerin-Carlin

The assessment of progress towards climate neutrality shows that the EU is moving in the right direction, but the pace is too slow

The transition to climate neutrality is essential for ensuring a liveable future.

It requires the modernisation of many existing structures and practices – from the way we move, to how our food is produced, and how we warm and cool; from what our buildings are made of, to how our cities are organised. All these building blocks must transform so that we fulfil our needs while releasing net zero or net negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere.

Action is most needed where objectives and key underlying enablers have been progressing far too slowly or not at all

The progress assessment shows that the EU has, over the period analysed, moved in the right direction, but needs to significantly pick up the pace of change to be on an effective path towards climate neutrality by 2050. This cautiously promising outlook was the case for all building blocks except finance and carbon dioxide removals, which were both found to be headed in the wrong direction. A look at the additional policies adopted under the European Green Deal in the past two years indicates that the EU is taking steps to accelerate progress in most areas. This already shows in EU progress establishing a governance system for climate policy, which is assessed as being ‘on track’.

ECNO observes 13 building blocks for climate neutrality.

30 September 2023

Achieving climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest is the cornerstone of the EU's strategic vision and of its commitment under the Paris Agreement.

are needed to close the climate investment gap.

To reach its climate objectives by 2030, the EU economy needs to multiply its annual public and private climate investments by 1.5x compared to those made today, according to the European Investment Bank.

Key takeaways for policy-makers from the first ECNO report

Watch the live recording of ECNO's launch in June

On 26 June 2023, ECNO was officially launched in Brussels, accompanied by a presentation of first flagship report on EU progress towards climate neutrality and panel discussion.

The panel was composed of the following stakeholders:

Yvon Slingenberg, Director, DG CLIMA, European Commission
Joško Klisović, Committee of the Regions
Florie Gonsolin, Director Industrial Transformation Projects, European Chemical Industry Council - Cefic
Robert Jeszke, CEO, Centre for Climate and Energy Analysis (CAKE) at the National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE)
Moderated by Erica Hope, European Climate Foundation

An in-depth, indicator-based understanding of real-world change

At the outset of European Green Deal implementation, only one of the building blocks showed developments at a pace that puts it ‘on track’. The observed trend for three of 13 building blocks was ‘too slow’ and in seven ‘far too slow’ when compared to what EU documents set out as is required to be on a path to climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest. In two areas, developments were moving in the ‘wrong direction’.

Explore all Building Blocks in Detail

Sectoral perspective

Concerns over pace of change in most sectors and additional boost needed for clean electricity

Progress within the sectors was varied. Electricity was almost ‘on track’, but the share of renewable energy and level of system integration has been building up too slowly to cater for future needs in a timely manner, particularly as electrification progresses in other sectors. In Mobility, Industry, Buildings, and Agrifood, progress was found to be ‘far too slow’ over the assessed period, requiring a clear acceleration of change under Green Deal policies. Carbon Dioxide Removal was found to be moving in the ‘wrong direction’ primarily due to shrinking natural sinks.

Cross-cutting perspective

Cross-cutting building blocks unlock sectoral transitions, but many areas are not given the attention they warrant

The cross-cutting building blocks also varied in their progress. Governance was assessed as being ‘on track’. Just and Inclusive Transition, Clean Technologies, Lifestyles, and External Action were found to be heading in the right direction but still 'too slow'. Adaptation was on the tip of going in the 'wrong direction' and Finance was clearly 'off track'. The results for Finance are especially concerning. A lack of adequate green investments and increases in fossil fuel subsidies undermine the transition in all sectors, and threaten to slow down progress if this building block remains unaddressed. The result for Governance is, however, a promising signal. It indicates that an increasingly robust policy framework is being put in place to facilitate actions in sectors and cross-cutting building blocks alike.

KEY INSIGHT

A likely speed boost from recent policy changes

The findings, largely derived from data for 2015–2021 and up-to-date qualitative information, need to be understood in the context of a rapidly developing landscape of EU climate policy. The European Green Deal and the subsequent ‘Fit for 55’ package of measures include expanded and additional policies that are and will continue to provide further guidance and levers to steer the building blocks in the right direction. This wealth of new policy initiatives at EU level for climate neutrality and for greater energy independence are signs that EU institutions are engaging with several of the necessary sectoral transitions. Going forward, the indicator values themselves will show a changing reality if the policies have been designed effectively and if their implementation is sound and timely. Future reiterations of the assessment will be able to analyse such effects or the lack thereof.

Now the task is for policy-makers to focus on areas of inadequate progress that are not already addressed by recent policy changes, and implement additional targeted actions.

Looking forward: Recommendations for policy makers

The assessment underscores that to navigate this decisive decade for climate action, EU policymakers urgently need a tracking system that is capable of indicating clearly and comprehensively where progress is sufficient, where it is not fast enough, or where it is even going in the wrong direction. Such insights will be key to formulating corrective policies or revising existing policies to align better with a path to climate neutrality – as well as identifying and removing of policies that set the wrong incentives.

The assessment found that, in principle, the EU already has a governance system in place that is correctly designed for the transition to climate neutrality. Yet, it needs to continue evolving and above all, must be implemented adequately. Article 6.1 of the EU Climate Law obliges the European Commission to assess progress towards climate neutrality, but the lack of a sufficiently granular monitoring framework is an obvious weakness. ECNO can step in to help this gap in the absence of a comprehensive official solution; ultimately however, it is decision-makers who need to own this process.

The assessment has also revealed that presently, data to measure progress on important objectives and enablers are missing and that existing targets and benchmarks are often out-of-date. Such data gaps lower the accuracy of any progress assessment and leave policy-makers with blind spots that undermine their ability to make the right decisions.

RECOMMENDATION 1

Take action

on the areas found to be going in the 'wrong direction'. This concerns Finance and Carbon Dioxide Removals overall, but also specific enablers within other building blocks, such as shifting livestock production towards a more sustainable model, a modal shift in passenger and freight transport, or adaptation to climate impacts in agriculture and forestry.

RECOMMENDATION 2

Set up an official monitoring system

with a broad set of indicators to analyse structural changes and conditions under the emissions curve. This system is crucial for pinpointing critical action areas and potential future obstacles to support policy-making. ECNO currently fulfills this function due to the lack of official bodies, striving to enhance formal EU processes, although ideally, official EU entities should take over this role.

RECOMMENDATION 3

Integrate and align the monitoring system with other EU tracking systems

to enhance planning and reporting for the EU and all Member States. Mutual referencing of the same parameters will allow for greater comparability, increased transparency and facilitated evaluations. Such a tracking system can also be integrated with other EU monitoring systems such as the 8th Environmental Action Programme and the European Semester creating a unified fact base for decision-making and reducing administrative burdens.

RECOMMENDATION 4

Regularly update

both the underlying pathways and the progress assessment – at least every two years. Annual evaluations, aligned with national energy and climate progress reports (NECPRs), are essential for informed policy actions. This necessitates amending Article 6 of the EU Climate Law. Regular updates are also needed for the underlying pathways providing benchmark values. A formal update of the EU long-term strategy (EU LTS) is already overdue.

RECOMMENDATION 5

Close data gaps

through new reporting obligations, adjusted data collection routines and mechanisms to address existing data deficiencies.
The European Commission must establish a common EU-wide progress tracking system based on a comprehensive set of indicators, linked to key enablers of the transition as well as to headline objectives, designed to inform policy-making in a way that enhances the capacity to achieve climate neutrality.

RECOMMENDATION 6

Involve expert stakeholders

from Member States, civil society, business, academia and diverse policy areas in the development of the monitoring system. The monitoring framework should be constructed in a transparent and open fashion to enhance support and facilitate its application. Anchoring the framework in legislation, like the Governance Regulation and EU Climate Law, is crucial for ensuring that its adoption and implementation are being adhered to.

RECOMMENDATION 7

Design an action trigger mechanism

within the EU Climate Law to assess progress lapses and prompt specific policy actions. This mechanism, inspired by EU models like the European Semester’s Alert Mechanism Report, would enable thorough evaluations and necessary interventions based on assessment results. Linking progress and policy consistency assessments in the EU Climate Law would maximize information use, aligning actions with climate neutrality goals.

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Window of opportunity for implementation

There is an opportunity to pursue these recommendations for a better official EU monitoring system during the upcoming reviews of the Governance Regulation and the EU Climate Law in 2024. But there is no need to wait. Under the existing obligation for a progress assessment, the European Commission can already kickstart the process.

Download and read more

The first in-depth assessment report aims to
inform a broader dialogue on how the EU can best track progress
and highlight areas for priority action.

Download Executive Summary

Download Full Report

ECNO_Flagship report - State of EU progress to climate neutrality_June 2023.pdf (27.99 MB)

ECNO_Executive summary - State of EU progress to climate neutrality_June 2023.pdf (15.17 MB)

Off

Buildings

EU must pick up speed on climate action, net zero watchdog warns

Demand for building blocks and bricks of cement or concrete

GHG emissions from direct buildings energy use

Share of renewable energy in heating and cooling

Deep renovation rate

Average renovation rate

Investments for energy renovation

Energy consumed for heating and cooling related to living space

Average space per capita

State of EU progress to climate neutrality

The assessment of progress towards climate neutrality shows that the EU is moving in the right direction, but the pace is too slow

The transition to climate neutrality is essential for ensuring a liveable future.

Action is most needed where objectives and key underlying enablers have been progressing far too slowly or not at all

The Commission’s first climate neutrality progress report is due on...

30 September 2023

€360bn/year

are needed to close the climate investment gap.

Watch the live recording of ECNO's launch in June

An in-depth, indicator-based understanding of real-world change

Sectoral perspective

Concerns over pace of change in most sectors and additional boost needed for clean electricity

Cross-cutting perspective

Cross-cutting building blocks unlock sectoral transitions, but many areas are not given the attention they warrant

KEY INSIGHT

A likely speed boost from recent policy changes

Now the task is for policy-makers to focus on areas of inadequate progress that are not already addressed by recent policy changes, and implement additional targeted actions.

Looking forward: Recommendations for policy makers

RECOMMENDATION 1

Take action

RECOMMENDATION 2

Set up an official monitoring system

RECOMMENDATION 3

Integrate and align the monitoring system with other EU tracking systems

RECOMMENDATION 4

Regularly update

RECOMMENDATION 5

Close data gaps

RECOMMENDATION 6

Involve expert stakeholders

RECOMMENDATION 7

Design an action trigger mechanism

Window of opportunity for implementation

Download and read more