Terms
Terms
Terminology
Building blocks are the economic sectors, such as energy, transport or industry, and cross-cutting areas, such as finance, innovation, and lifestyles, in which transformation is needed to achieve a climate neutral society by 2050, and across which ECNO tracks progress.
Building block assessment
Acceleration factor
Or the ‘required change in speed’ is the ratio of the required change versus the past change on a given indicator. This results in the example formulation: ‘We need to increase our annual emission reductions to at least 4.9 Mt CO2e per year – or 2.6 times faster than the 1.9 MtCO2e per year achieved in the past’.
Benchmarks
Future reference points against which progress for each indicator is compared. ECNO derives benchmarks from official EU sources, such as directives, regulations, strategies, and action plans, including their related impact assessments. Benchmarks often come in the form of quantified policy goals or targets.
Climate neutrality
Stands for the objective of achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This means that emissions are brought down as close to zero as possible, with remaining, difficult to abate emissions balanced by GHG removals within a given country or region.
Enablers
The supporting conditions and underlying changes needed to meet the objectives in a given building block. They are the opposite of barriers or inhibitors.
Historical data
Includes, but is not limited to, statistics from Member States harmonised and provided by Eurostat or the European Environment Agency (EEA) as well as from international organisations such as the OECD, FAO, or World Bank.
Indicators
Track the historical development and status of enablers and objectives based on quantitative data. An assessment of indicator progress compares the trend against the required development to meet a future reference point, where data and relevant benchmarks are available.
Objectives
Describe what needs to be achieved in each building block to reach climate neutrality.
Required change
The change that underlies a pathway that meets the identified benchmark or target. Where benchmarks are missing, the required change indicates a direction and speed of change.
Trend
The development of an indicator over time based on historical data. ECNO’s trendline is a straight, best-fit line that smooths out the variation in historical developments based on all data points, providing a sense of the general progress over time.
Agrifood
The agrifood building block refers to all stages of the agricultural supply chain from food production to consumption, including food processing, retail, and associated waste. It also considers aspects of land use and the production of agricultural inputs.
OVERVIEW:
Progress on agrifood has been far too slow
The EU agrifood sector is far too slow in supporting the EU’s progress towards climate neutrality. While some of the tracked indicators are headed in the right direction, such as bovine meat consumption, nitrogen fertiliser consumption, organic farming area, and downstream food-related emissions, their development must accelerate in the future. On the other hand, some of the indicators tracking the largest agricultural emissions source(s) in the EU – livestock numbers and manure management emissions intensities – are headed in the opposite direction, and a U-turn is critically needed. To be on progress towards climate neutrality objectives, the EU must fundamentally shift the way it produces and consumes food.
OBJECTIVES
Objectives describe what needs to be achieved in each building block to reach climate neutrality.
Objective 1
Minimising agrifood emissions in 2050
While EU agricultural emissions have been gradually decreasing, the rate of change must be 2.4 times faster than the current rate of progress to meet the emissions levels outlined in the EU LTS. Most agricultural emission reductions occurred in the 1990s, and emissions have more or less stagnated or minorly fluctuated since 2005. It is clear that a more concerted effort is needed to implement mitigation measures in the agricultural sector.
Agricultural emissions
This indicator shows past development in EU agricultural GHG emissions in comparison to the EU target of reaching agricultural emissions levels of 254 MtCO2e in 2050 (middle value of 1.5TECH and 1.5 LIFE scenarios outlined in the EU LTS). The data show an annual decrease of 1.8 MtCO2e between 2016 and 2021. To meet the target, the required annual reduction between 2021 and 2050 needs to be 4.3 MtCO2e, which is 2.4 times faster than the current rate of progress.
Agricultural emissions pertain to on-farm emissions from agricultural production, excluding energy use and LULUCF, and include the same sources as defined by the UNFCCC.
Objective 2
Shifting to diets with a low carbon footprint
For the EU to reach climate neutrality without over relying on natural and technological removals, a shift to more sustainable diets must occur, including a reduction in bovine meat consumption. Beef consumption in the EU has been decreasing at a promising, yet insufficient pace. The rate of change must be 1.3 times faster than the current rate of progress in order to reach the levels outlined in the 1.5LIFE scenario of the EU LTS.
Bovine meat consumption
This indicator shows past development in bovine meat consumption relative to the EU target of a 34% decrease in bovine meat consumption compared to 2013 levels. The data show an annual decrease of 0.10 kg/capita between 2017 and 2022. To meet the target, the required annual reduction between 2022 and 2050 needs to be 0.12 kg/capita, which is 1.3 times faster than the current rate of progress.
Bovine meat consumption is defined as the total available supply of meat (accounting for trade and inedible parts) per capita. It does not include the impact of food waste.
ENABLERS
Enablers are the supporting conditions and underlying changes needed to meet the objectives in a given building block. They are the opposite of barriers or inhibitors.
Enabler 1
Reducing fertiliser use and cropland-related emissions
Nitrogen fertiliser consumption
This indicator shows past development in nitrogen fertiliser consumption per hectare of cropland in comparison to the EU target of a 20% reduction in nitrogen fertiliser consumption by 2030 (compared to a 2018 reference point). Data show an annual decrease of 0.8 kg N/ha between 2016 and 2021. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2021 and 2030 needs to be 1.5 kg N/ha, which is 1.8 times faster than the current rate of progress.
The use of nitrogen fertiliser for agricultural production divided by total hectares of EU cropland.
Organic farming as a share of total utilised agricultural area
This indicator shows past development in the uptake of organic farming in comparison to the EU target of reaching a 25% share of organic farming relative to total agricultural area in 2030. The data show an annual increase of 0.5 %-points between 2015 and 2020. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2020 and 2030 needs to be 1.6 %-points, which is 3.2 times faster than the current rate of progress.
Share of agricultural land either fully converted or in the process of converting to organic farming.
Enabler 2
Shifting livestock production towards a sustainable model
Manure management emissions intensity of cattle
This indicator shows past development in manure management emissions per head of cattle. The data show an annual increase of 0.09% between 2016 and 2021. This development was heading in the wrong direction, and a U-turn is needed.
Average manure management emissions per head of cattle.
Livestock
This indicator shows past development in total livestock numbers. The data show an annual increase of 0.19% between 2016 and 2021. This development was heading in the wrong direction, and a U-turn is needed.
Total livestock numbers in the EU, including cattle, swine, small ruminants, and poultry, among others.
Enabler 3
Reducing food waste and end-of-supply-chain emissions
Volume of waste containing food waste
This indicator shows past development in the volume of waste containing food waste. The data show an annual increase of 0.46% between 2010 and 2020. This development was heading in the wrong direction, and a U-turn is needed.
Total waste generated in the waste categories and economic activities that generate food waste. This includes the Eurostat datasets: animal and mixed food waste [W091], vegetable wastes [W092], and household and similar wastes [W101] under the economic categories, agriculture, forestry, and fishing [A]; manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products [C10-C12]; services [G-U_X_G4677]; and households [EP_HH].
Emissions from food processing, transport, and packaging
This indicator shows past development in downstream emissions from food processing, transport, and packaging. The data show an annual decrease of 0.79% between 2015 and 2020. This development was heading in the right direction but should accelerate in the future.
Emissions associated with energy use from food processing and the production of packaging for food stuffs, and the domestic transportation of agricultural products.
report
State of EU progress to climate neutrality
The assessment of progress towards climate neutrality shows that the EU is moving in the right direction, but the pace is too slow. The transition to climate neutrality is essential for ensuring a liveable future.
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