Terms
Terms
Terminology
Building blocks are the economic sectors, such as energy, transport or industry, and cross-cutting areas, such as finance, innovation, and lifestyles, in which transformation is needed to achieve a climate neutral society by 2050, and across which ECNO tracks progress.
Building block assessment
Acceleration factor
Or the ‘required change in speed’ is the ratio of the required change versus the past change on a given indicator. This results in the example formulation: ‘We need to increase our annual emission reductions to at least 4.9 Mt CO2e per year – or 2.6 times faster than the 1.9 MtCO2e per year achieved in the past’.
Benchmarks
Future reference points against which progress for each indicator is compared. ECNO derives benchmarks from official EU sources, such as directives, regulations, strategies, and action plans, including their related impact assessments. Benchmarks often come in the form of quantified policy goals or targets.
Climate neutrality
Stands for the objective of achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This means that emissions are brought down as close to zero as possible, with remaining, difficult to abate emissions balanced by GHG removals within a given country or region.
Enablers
The supporting conditions and underlying changes needed to meet the objectives in a given building block. They are the opposite of barriers or inhibitors.
Historical data
Includes, but is not limited to, statistics from Member States harmonised and provided by Eurostat or the European Environment Agency (EEA) as well as from international organisations such as the OECD, FAO, or World Bank.
Indicators
Track the historical development and status of enablers and objectives based on quantitative data. An assessment of indicator progress compares the trend against the required development to meet a future reference point, where data and relevant benchmarks are available.
Objectives
Describe what needs to be achieved in each building block to reach climate neutrality.
Required change
The change that underlies a pathway that meets the identified benchmark or target. Where benchmarks are missing, the required change indicates a direction and speed of change.
Trend
The development of an indicator over time based on historical data. ECNO’s trendline is a straight, best-fit line that smooths out the variation in historical developments based on all data points, providing a sense of the general progress over time.
Carbon Dioxide Removal
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be crucial to achieve climate neutrality by compensating for minimal residual emissions that cannot be avoided. Currently, CDR comprises only natural sinks but is anticipated to include technical solutions in the future.
OVERVIEW:
Progress on Carbon Dioxide Removals was heading in the wrong direction
Carbon dioxide removals (CDR) declined due to decreasing LULUCF removals of on average 13.9 Mt CO2e per year between 2016-2021; this must be reversed to an annual increase of 6.3 Mt CO2e per year to meet the EU’s LULUCF net removals target of 310 Mt CO2e in 2030. At present, there are no technology-based removals in the EU. Within the limits of the approaches’ own sustainability, increases of at least 625 kt CO2e per year in capture and storage of CO2 are required to meet the European Commission’s aspirational objective of 5 Mt CO2e technical removal in 2030. For this, the capture and storage capacity of BECCS and DACCS facilities are needed for demonstration and improvement taking into account the trade-offs coming with the technology.
OBJECTIVES
Objectives describe what needs to be achieved in each building block to reach climate neutrality.
Objective 1
Enhancing natural sinks
Progress with natural removals was heading in the wrong direction, and a U-turn is needed. Natural removals declined annually by 13.9 Mt CO2 between 2016 and 2021 due to various factors such as land degradation, deforestation, wildfires, and climate change (EPRS, 2023). This trend is headed in the wrong direction, natural removals now need to increase annually by 6.3 Mt CO2 to reach the EU target of 310 Mt CO2/year in 2030.
Net removals from LULUCF (land-use, land-use change and forestry)
Net removals from LULUCF need a U-turn as data show an annual decrease of 13.9 Mt CO2e per year between 2016 and 2021. To achieve the LULUCF target of removing 310 Mt CO2e in 2030, the EU must achieve an annual increase of 6.3 Mt CO2e per year between 2021 and 2030.
Net removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) equal the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere in the form of biomass on land and oceans. This includes emission fluxes from cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements, and forests.
Objective 2
Delivering on technical removals
With no technical CO2 removal facility running in the EU in 2022, progress towards the EC’s aspirational objective of removing 5 Mt CO2 in 2030 was far too slow. Yearly increase in removals must rise to 625 kt CO2e; achieving such a target is not out of sight considering a first planned BECCS in Sweden, which is expected to have an annual capture capacity of 783 kt CO2e. However, the potential for BECCS deployment is very limited, given the limits to feedstock being sourced sustainably.
Net removals from technical solutions
Progress was far too slow as no technical CO2 removal facility was built in the EU between 2017 and 2022. The EC has the aspirational objective of removing 5 Mt CO2 in 2030 using technical removal options.
The indicator measures net removals from technical solutions such as bioenergy or direct air carbon capture and storage with permanent storage of CO2.
ENABLERS
Enablers are the supporting conditions and underlying changes needed to meet the objectives in a given building block. They are the opposite of barriers or inhibitors.
Enabler 1
Store more carbon in trees
Growth in forest area
Growth in forest area needs a U-turn as the area increased but at decreasing rate. The rate of forest area growth decreased by 21,400 ha or 6.7% per year between 2010 and 2020.
Forest area is the land spanning more than 0.5 ha with trees higher than 5 meters and a canopy cover of more than 10%, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use. Data points are provided every five years which is the average over the preceding five years.
Growing tree stock
Wood stocks development needs a U-turn as stocks increased but the rate of growth decreased by 11.8 Mm³ or 4.5% per year between 2010 and 2020.
Wood stocks are the volume over bark of all living trees with a minimum diameter of 10 cm at breast height (or above buttress if these are higher). It includes the stem from ground level up to a top diameter of 0 cm at the top of the tree, excluding branches. Data points are provided every five years which is the average over the preceding five years.
Enabler 2
Store more carbon in soils
Concentration of organic carbon in arable land
The concentration of organic carbon in arable land shows a minor decrease of 0.1% per year between 2009 and 2015, with no more recent data available. As the concentration of organic carbon needs to increase to meet removals targets, it needs to reverse its trend.
The indicator refers to the amount of organic carbon present in the topsoil of land that is used for agriculture.
Net carbon dioxide emissions from croplands, grasslands, and wetlands
The net CO2 emissions from wetlands, croplands and grasslands was heading in the right direction, but well below the required pace as data show an annual decrease of 0.8 Mt CO2 or 1.4% per year between 2016 and 2021.
Net CO2 emissions pertaining to carbon losses or gains from wetlands, croplands and grasslands.
Enabler 3
Demonstrating the sustainable application of technical CO2 removals
DACCS and BECCS capacities
The data show no annual capacity additions between 2017 and 2022 which is far too slow if such capacities should deliver at least 5 Mt CO2 in net removals by 2030 (EC, 2021b).
This indicator shows the installed capacities of direct air capture (DACCS) and bioenergy capture and storage facilities (BECCS) that captured and permanently stored CO2.
Costs of BECCS and DACCS
There is no data on the cost development of capture, transport, and storage with BECCS and DACCS in the EU yet.
The indicator measures the cost development of CO2 capture, transport and storage using bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACCS) in permanent storage sites.
report
State of EU progress to climate neutrality
The assessment of progress towards climate neutrality shows that the EU is moving in the right direction, but the pace is too slow. The transition to climate neutrality is essential for ensuring a liveable future.
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