Terms
Terms
Terminology
Building blocks are the economic sectors, such as energy, transport or industry, and cross-cutting areas, such as finance, innovation, and lifestyles, in which transformation is needed to achieve a climate neutral society by 2050, and across which ECNO tracks progress.
Building block assessment
Acceleration factor
Or the ‘required change in speed’ is the ratio of the required change versus the past change on a given indicator. This results in the example formulation: ‘We need to increase our annual emission reductions to at least 4.9 Mt CO2e per year – or 2.6 times faster than the 1.9 MtCO2e per year achieved in the past’.
Benchmarks
Future reference points against which progress for each indicator is compared. ECNO derives benchmarks from official EU sources, such as directives, regulations, strategies, and action plans, including their related impact assessments. Benchmarks often come in the form of quantified policy goals or targets.
Climate neutrality
Stands for the objective of achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This means that emissions are brought down as close to zero as possible, with remaining, difficult to abate emissions balanced by GHG removals within a given country or region.
Enablers
The supporting conditions and underlying changes needed to meet the objectives in a given building block. They are the opposite of barriers or inhibitors.
Historical data
Includes, but is not limited to, statistics from Member States harmonised and provided by Eurostat or the European Environment Agency (EEA) as well as from international organisations such as the OECD, FAO, or World Bank.
Indicators
Track the historical development and status of enablers and objectives based on quantitative data. An assessment of indicator progress compares the trend against the required development to meet a future reference point, where data and relevant benchmarks are available.
Objectives
Describe what needs to be achieved in each building block to reach climate neutrality.
Required change
The change that underlies a pathway that meets the identified benchmark or target. Where benchmarks are missing, the required change indicates a direction and speed of change.
Trend
The development of an indicator over time based on historical data. ECNO’s trendline is a straight, best-fit line that smooths out the variation in historical developments based on all data points, providing a sense of the general progress over time.
Lifestyles
The transition of lifestyles towards more sustainable behaviour patterns and social practices is a meaningful driver of decarbonisation.
OVERVIEW:
Progress on lifestyles has been far too slow
Enabling climate-positive lifestyles is key to the transition to climate neutrality. However, through 2019, the per person material footprint in the EU was moving in the 'wrong direction'. More recent positive trends are likely significantly skewed by disruptions to consumption patterns that occurred during the pandemic. The per person carbon footprint has been declining but far too slowly. Insufficient or even no data make it challenging to assess the enablers that will determine the development of material and carbon footprints in the future – particularly those related to the decisive infrastructures that promote climate-conscious behaviour, such as the availability of high-quality public transport. Economic incentives for behaviour change have developed somewhat in the right direction with higher carbon prices likely influencing energy consumption. But no information was found to compare, for example, the actual affordability of vegetarian compared to animal-based dietary options. Similarly, the diffusion of climate neutral habits could only be assessed through self-reported climate-conscious behaviour, which is on track.
HIGHLIGHT ONE
Lack of policies
There are little to no policies at the EU level that officially aim to support the transition to more sufficient lifestyles. While scattered measures in the field already exist, notably the Ecodesign Directive, the Eco-labelling Scheme or the Circular Economy Action Plan, there is no overarching sufficiency strategy yet on the impact that lifestyles have for a path to climate neutrality.
HIGHLIGHT TWO
Structural barriers
Structural conditions like the affordability or accessibility of climate-friendly options often act as barriers to more sustainable everyday habits. Sustainable consumption decisions must be promoted, and structural obstacles dismantled so that a climate neutral lifestyle is easy and accessible for all. To achieve this, an elaborate mix of both upstream and downstream measures is needed to ensure that cheaper and easier alternatives diffuse in society, generating new social habits.
HIGHLIGHT THREE
Decreases in per person carbon footprint only marginal
The data show an annual decrease of 1.2% in per person carbon footprint between 2014 and 2019. Following this trend, households in the EU are likely to further decrease their carbon footprint in the future. However, the current rate of decrease is still far too slow and will need to accelerate significantly to be in line with climate neutrality by 2050.
OBJECTIVES
Objectives describe what needs to be achieved in each building block to reach climate neutrality.
Objective 1
Reducing household material consumption
Through 2019, the per person material consumption was moving in the wrong direction. The data show an annual decrease of 0.03% between 2015 and 2020. More recent positive trends are likely significantly skewed by disruptions to consumption patterns that occurred during the pandemic. A partial rebound is expected in 2021 and the coming years, but the present cost-of-living crisis might keep consumption levels below pre-pandemic standards. At the time of writing, data are only available up to 2020.
Per person material footprint
This indicator shows past development in the per person material footprint. The data show an annual decrease of 0.03% between 2015 and 2020. Through 2019, the indicator’s development was moving in the wrong direction. More recent positive trends are likely significantly skewed by disruptions to consumption patterns during the pandemic.
Raw material consumption represents the amount of material required to produce the products consumed on average by each individual in the EU.
Objective 2
Reducing the carbon-intensity of consumption
Progress towards the second objective on the carbon-intensity of consumption has evolved somewhat positively. Following the trend, households in the EU are likely to further decrease their carbon footprint in the future. However, the current rate of decrease is still far too slow and will need to accelerate significantly to be in line with climate neutrality by 2050.
Per person carbon footprint from household expenditure
This indicator shows past development in the per person carbon footprint from household expenditure. The data show an annual decrease of 1.2% between 2014 and 2019. This development was heading in the right direction but should substantially accelerate in the future.
The carbon footprint is a measure of the GHG emissions that arise along the full production chain of all products or services purchased by the average EU household irrespective of where such emissions occur.
ENABLERS
Enabler 1
Providing infrastructure that promotes climate neutral behaviour
Investment in public transport
At the time of assessment, there were no EU-wide aggregated data on investments in public transport available. The European Investment Bank (EIB) distributed around one quarter of their transport portfolio to urban public transport in 2019. The European Regional Development Fund supports the expansion and connection of public transport in rural areas, focusing on southern and eastern EU Member States. Despite this range of funding programs for the development and improvement of public transport at EU-level, the lack of national-level information makes it difficult to gauge the rate of progress.
This indicator tracks investments by public entities in public transport systems. There are currently no aggregated data available for the EU.
Share of EU population living in EU Member States, regions or local communities that promote sustainable food in canteens
Sufficient data on the promotion of sustainable food in canteens by EU Member States or local governments are currently unavailable. Guidelines for sustainable public procurement, also in the food sector, exist but it is not clear how many cities chose to implement these. Interestingly, most cities that promote sustainable food in canteens focus on locally and/or organically produced food rather than on reducing the consumption of animal products.
This indicator outlines the share of the population that lives in areas where central, regional, or local authorities support the procurement of sustainable food in public and private canteens. There are currently no aggregated data available for the EU.
Enabler 2
Enhancing economic incentives
Price on carbon
This indicator shows past development in the net effective carbon rates of 22 EU Member States plus the United Kingdom. There are insufficient data to calculate a trend for assessment. Still, existing data show an increase of 27% between 2018 and 2021. This increasing price signal for carbon-intensive products and services is a positive development for reaching climate neutrality.
Net effective carbon rates are a metric for how countries price carbon through fuel excise taxes, carbon taxes, and emissions trading systems. Using OECD data, the data set only includes EU countries that are part of the OECD and therefore functions as a proxy for an EU-wide measure.
Affordability of vegetarian options compared to meat option
Currently, there are no EU-wide aggregated data on the affordability of vegetarian compared to meat options. Recent studies comparing the costs animal- versus plant-based diets provide evidence to suggest that the latter is the cheaper choice, especially if the externalities of meat production are included in the calculation. These include the associated costs of climate change and the societal healthcare costs for diseases associated with a meat-rich diet. Notably, meat is more vulnerable to the impact of inflation on commodity costs, leading to higher prices for the end-consumer, while the prices for meat replacements remain stable.
The indicator tracks the relative cost of vegetarian diet versus one that include meat.
Enabler 3
Diffusion of climate-neutral habits in society
Self-reported climate-conscious behaviour
This indicator shows past development in self-reported climate-conscious behaviour. An average annual increase of 7% between 2011 and 2021 suggests that individual sustainable behaviours are becoming increasingly widespread, despite the low threshold of the question. This development was heading in the right direction.
This indicator refers responses to the survey question, “Have you personally taken any action to fight climate change over the past six months?” included in the biennial Special Eurobarometer Climate Change survey series.
Climate-damaging advertisement
At present, there are no EU-wide aggregated data on the amount spent on climate-damaging advertisement. Still, at least in the agrifood sector, it seems that the EU is actually supporting increased emissions through advertising. For instance, EU grants to support promotion projects for European animal products have increased between 2016 to 2020, while similar grants for fruits and vegetables have decreased.
The indicator observes the amount spent (in EUR) on advertisement for carbon-intensive products and services, such as airlines, animal products or fossil energy.
report
State of EU progress to climate neutrality
The assessment of progress towards climate neutrality shows that the EU is moving in the right direction, but the pace is too slow. The transition to climate neutrality is essential for ensuring a liveable future.
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