Terms
Terms
Terminology
Building blocks are the economic sectors, such as energy, transport or industry, and cross-cutting areas, such as finance, innovation, and lifestyles, in which transformation is needed to achieve a climate neutral society by 2050, and across which ECNO tracks progress.
Building block assessment
Acceleration factor
Or the ‘required change in speed’ is the ratio of the required change versus the past change on a given indicator. This results in the example formulation: ‘We need to increase our annual emission reductions to at least 4.9 Mt CO2e per year – or 2.6 times faster than the 1.9 MtCO2e per year achieved in the past’.
Benchmarks
Future reference points against which progress for each indicator is compared. ECNO derives benchmarks from official EU sources, such as directives, regulations, strategies, and action plans, including their related impact assessments. Benchmarks often come in the form of quantified policy goals or targets.
Climate neutrality
Stands for the objective of achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This means that emissions are brought down as close to zero as possible, with remaining, difficult to abate emissions balanced by GHG removals within a given country or region.
Enablers
The supporting conditions and underlying changes needed to meet the objectives in a given building block. They are the opposite of barriers or inhibitors.
Historical data
Includes, but is not limited to, statistics from Member States harmonised and provided by Eurostat or the European Environment Agency (EEA) as well as from international organisations such as the OECD, FAO, or World Bank.
Indicators
Track the historical development and status of enablers and objectives based on quantitative data. An assessment of indicator progress compares the trend against the required development to meet a future reference point, where data and relevant benchmarks are available.
Objectives
Describe what needs to be achieved in each building block to reach climate neutrality.
Required change
The change that underlies a pathway that meets the identified benchmark or target. Where benchmarks are missing, the required change indicates a direction and speed of change.
Trend
The development of an indicator over time based on historical data. ECNO’s trendline is a straight, best-fit line that smooths out the variation in historical developments based on all data points, providing a sense of the general progress over time.
Governance
Governance refers to the tools used by governments to align short-term actions with a climate neutral future, ensure a sound evidence-base for decisions, coordinate across sectors, enhance transparency and accountability, and foster public and political buy-in.
OVERVIEW:
Progress on governance has been on track
EU governments have made progress establishing governance systems on track to tackle climate neutrality, but there is still room for improvement. Existing EU regulation provides common ‘minimum governance standards’ for Member States, and the 2021 EU Climate Law enshrines a framework at EU level. But a closer look reveals deficiencies in 2050 planning and monitoring processes as well as data and information gaps on transparency processes and climate mainstreaming. Independent climate councils and citizens’ climate assemblies provide new avenues for expert and public input, but these are not always well-positioned for impact. Despite high awareness of the climate crisis and support for an ambitious governmental response, data also show that public confidence in the adequacy of national actions is lacking.
INSIGHT TWO
Robust long-term planning and monitoring systems largely missing
As of 2021, sufficiently detailed planning for climate neutrality was missing in fourteen EU Member States. A proactive national monitoring system with a built-in trigger for additional action was identified in only four countries.
INSIGHT THREE
Innovative approach to public consultations in seven EU countries
Citizens' climate assemblies support effective public consultation for climate policy-making, and as of 2022, have been convened nationwide in seven EU countries. Despite the longevity of their influence these institutions must continue to spread beyond a handful of countries and be pursued with some regularity to play an impactful role in the transition to climate neutrality.
OBJECTIVES
Objectives describe what needs to be achieved in each building block to reach climate neutrality.
Objective 1
Putting in place a comprehensive operational framework
The speed at which climate framework laws have taken hold in the EU is a promising development and, while there is room for improvement on existing laws, EU governments are on track to ensure an operational and comprehensive overarching framework for climate policy-making.
Share of EU GHG emissions that falls under a comprehensive climate framework law at the national level
This indicator shows past development in the share of EU GHG emissions that is covered by a comprehensive national climate framework law. No benchmark is available from an official EU source.
The data show an annual increase of 37% between 2017 and 2022. This development, while recent, puts the EU on track to ensuring an operational and comprehensive framework for tackling challenges and making the right decisions en route to climate neutrality.
This indicator outlines the share of GHG emissions from Member States that have adopted a comprehensive climate framework law. ‘Comprehensive’ is operationalised as: law must include a long-term (e.g., 30-year time horizon from year of adoption), quantitative, economy-wide reduction target and a short- and/or long-term national policy planning cycle.
Objective 2
Fostering stable political and societal buy-in
Climate change has long been a key issue of concern for Europeans and support for an ambitious governmental response is high – indicating that progress ensuring societal buy-in is on track. However, despite evidence of stable public support for the EU’s climate neutrality project, confidence in governmental action is lacking.
Share of EU citizens that supports and has confidence in the transition to climate neutrality
This indicator shows past development in the share of EU citizens that supports and has confidence in the transition to climate neutrality.
The data show an annual increase of 2% between 2011 and 2021. This development, while seeming slow, reflects stable public support for the climate neutrality transition (84% in 2021) and is thus on track. However, 2021 data omitted from the analysis show a lack of public confidence in governmental response, which lessens the otherwise positive outlook.
This indicator outlines the share of Eurobarometer climate survey participants that a) see climate change as a ‘very serious problem’ facing the world and b) ‘agree’ or ‘totally agree’ with the EU climate policy or the climate neutrality target. The two questions are weighted equally, and a composite is formed by taking the average.
Note: The question on support for the climate neutrality target was included for the first time in 2019. Before 2019, a different question was used to gauge public support for climate policy generally.
Historical data source: Eurobarometer Climate Change Survey
ENABLERS
Enablers are the supporting conditions and underlying changes needed to meet the objectives in a given building block. They are the opposite of barriers or inhibitors.
Enabler 1
Integrated learning cycle to guide planning, policymaking, and progress monitoring
Share of EU Member States (plus EU) with an up-to-date and compliant long-term strategy (LTS)
This indicator shows past development in the share of EU Member States (plus EU) with an up-to-date and compliant long-term strategy (LTS) considering the EU Governance Regulation provision for Member States to update these by 2025.
The data show an annual increase of 67% between 2018 and 2022. This rapid development is due largely to the impulse created by the Governance Regulation. However, progress is nevertheless too slow; only 50% of EU governments had a legally compliant strategy by the end of 2022, well after the original deadline of January 2020, and robust long-term plans are needed now to steer decisions in the short term.
This indicator outlines the share of Member States with a strategy that is no older than five years, fulfils the minimum content requirements of the Governance Regulation, and mentions climate neutrality or net zero emissions in a national context.
Historical data source: own research; EU Commission long-term strategy repository; Velten et al (2022): Charting a path to net zero: An assessment of national long-term strategies in the EU
Share of GHG emissions covered by a governance system with national progress monitoring that can trigger additional governmental action
This indicator shows past development in the share of GHG emissions covered by a governance system with national progress monitoring that can trigger additional governmental action.
The data show an annual increase of 64% between 2016 and 2021. This development is too slow as the trend is explained largely by the governance systems in only two countries. Only four national governance systems have a qualifying monitoring mechanism in place. This underscores a lack of robust national monitoring that can trigger the necessary policy revisions to reach climate neutrality.
This indicator outlines the share of GHG emissions from Member States with a governance system that includes a national progress monitoring mechanism and built-in action trigger for cases of insufficient progress. This mechanism must be additional to EU reporting obligations and is not the same as review/revision cycles for national planning (although it may be integrated in these).
Enabler 2
Robust institutional arrangements to ensure a coherent approach to the climate neutrality transition
Share of EU Member States (plus EU) with a permanent independent scientific advisory body for climate policy
This indicator shows past development in the share of EU Member States (plus EU) with a permanent independent scientific advisory body for climate policy. No benchmark is available from an official EU source.
The data show an annual increase of 34 % between 2016 and 2021. Given that four councils have been established in the last couple years alone, the potential impact of the EU Advisory Board, and the number of councils pending, this development is on track to ensure the EU has a sound evidence basis for policymaking on the path to climate neutrality in 2050.
This indicator shows the share of Member States and the EU with a permanently established independent climate council, composed of scientific experts. There must be a legal requirement for government to consult and/or respond at some point in policy formulation or review.
Historical data source: Evans and Duwe (2021), Climate Governance Systems in Europe: the role of national advisory bodies, Annex 2; Ecologic (2023): Climate Framework Laws Matrix
Share of EU Member States (plus EU) that show evidence for a coherent all-of-government approach
There is insufficient data to assess the degree of climate policy coherence and all-of-government approach to the climate neutrality transition.
This indicator shows the share of Member States and the EU that have a governance framework that ensures a high degree of coherent climate policy integration and mainstreaming. This is difficult to measure for lack of comprehensive data.
Enabler 3
Frequent, early, and effective participation processes to enhance the transparency and credibility of policy decisions
Share of EU Member States (plus EU) governments that have commissioned a country-wide citizens’ assembly on climate
This indicator shows past development in the share of EU Member States (plus EU) governments that has commissioned a country-wide citizens’ assembly on climate. No benchmark is available from an official EU source.
The data show an annual increase of 52 % between 2018 and 2022. Given the novelty of climate assemblies in the EU as a channel for public engagement, this represents a positive on track trend. Regardless of this steady increase, the degree to which EU Member States will continue to pursue climate assemblies is unclear, as it is affected by a range of factors. The degree to which these become integrated into national governance systems with any regularity remains to be seen.
The indicator shows the share of national (plus EU) governments that have commissioned a country-wide citizens’ assembly on climate.
To account for differences in implementation, national climate assemblies are weighted along two criteria to operationalise ‘governmental attention and investment’: (1) budget provided and (2) governmental response.
Historical data source: Knowledge Network on Climate Assemblies (KNOCA)
Quality of public and stakeholder consultations on EU climate policy impact assessments
This indicator shows past development in the quality of public and stakeholder consultations on EU climate policy impact assessments. No benchmark is available from an official EU source.
Despite some indication that the trend is headed in the wrong direction, the analysis is limited by insufficient data and challenges to interpretation.
The indicator shows the quality of stakeholder consultation on impact assessments for new or revised policies. It includes information for all outreach as the reporting does not separate climate policy from other policy areas.
Note: value derived from the consultation and information base ‘quality component’, which is one criterion of the assessment. This is rated on a scale from 1–4, ‘unsatisfactory’, ‘weak’, ‘acceptable’, and ‘good’.
Historical data source: annual reporting by the Regulatory Scrutiny Board
report
State of EU progress to climate neutrality
The assessment of progress towards climate neutrality shows that the EU is moving in the right direction, but the pace is too slow. The transition to climate neutrality is essential for ensuring a liveable future.
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