Terms
Terms
Terminology
Building blocks are the economic sectors, such as energy, transport or industry, and cross-cutting areas, such as finance, innovation, and lifestyles, in which transformation is needed to achieve a climate neutral society by 2050, and across which ECNO tracks progress.
Building block assessment
Acceleration factor
Or the ‘required change in speed’ is the ratio of the required change versus the past change on a given indicator. This results in the example formulation: ‘We need to increase our annual emission reductions to at least 4.9 Mt CO2e per year – or 2.6 times faster than the 1.9 MtCO2e per year achieved in the past’.
Benchmarks
Future reference points against which progress for each indicator is compared. ECNO derives benchmarks from official EU sources, such as directives, regulations, strategies, and action plans, including their related impact assessments. Benchmarks often come in the form of quantified policy goals or targets.
Climate neutrality
Stands for the objective of achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This means that emissions are brought down as close to zero as possible, with remaining, difficult to abate emissions balanced by GHG removals within a given country or region.
Enablers
The supporting conditions and underlying changes needed to meet the objectives in a given building block. They are the opposite of barriers or inhibitors.
Historical data
Includes, but is not limited to, statistics from Member States harmonised and provided by Eurostat or the European Environment Agency (EEA) as well as from international organisations such as the OECD, FAO, or World Bank.
Indicators
Track the historical development and status of enablers and objectives based on quantitative data. An assessment of indicator progress compares the trend against the required development to meet a future reference point, where data and relevant benchmarks are available.
Objectives
Describe what needs to be achieved in each building block to reach climate neutrality.
Required change
The change that underlies a pathway that meets the identified benchmark or target. Where benchmarks are missing, the required change indicates a direction and speed of change.
Trend
The development of an indicator over time based on historical data. ECNO’s trendline is a straight, best-fit line that smooths out the variation in historical developments based on all data points, providing a sense of the general progress over time.
Mobility
Mobility is essential for connecting people and sustaining economies. For a transformative shift in the transport sector, reducing motorized transportation, promoting clean modes, and decarbonising remaining transport are essential.
OVERVIEW:
Progress in mobility has been far too slow
Progress towards climate neutrality in the mobility sector is overall deemed far too slow, but is mixed across enablers. Overall transport emissions rose by 7% between 1990 and 2020 while overall emissions in the EU decreased by 32%. COVID-19 restrictions temporarily reduced emissions, but a rebound occurred in 2021. Total transport volume continues to grow at a pace that is too fast to meet targets, shifts to public and non-motorized mobility face challenges and are going into the wrong direction altogether, but passenger EV adoption is increasing, albeit at a too slow speed. Clean heavy-duty vehicles lag behind. Stricter standards and government support are crucial.
INSIGHT ONE
EV sales have reached record high levels in 2022
Sales of electric cars have reached 21% in 2022 in the EU27, far above the global average of 14%. Of the 14 countries with the highest sales shares only one lies outside of Europe.
INSIGHT THREE
Promising policies are being proposed and implemented on the EU level
Although not quite on track yet, the sector can be expected to accelerate further into the right direction, as positive developments on the policy front are observed. Most prominently of these are the phase-out of combustion engines but also the new emissions standards for heavy goods transport and efforts towards larger transport volumes on rail can have significant impacts on the sector’s overall emissions.
INSIGHT FOUR
COVID-19 showed that change is possible
Emissions in the sector dropped substantially in 2020 and subsequent years due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although this was followed by strong rebounds, it showed that less travel, especially on road and air, is possible, and certain lasting changes, such as remote work, have shown that behavioural change is not just possible but can have positive impacts on the environment as well. In addition, those changes are not expected to be fully reversed leading to less overall commuting travel.
OBJECTIVES
Objectives describe what needs to be achieved in each building block to reach climate neutrality.
Objective 1
Reduce GHG emissions in the transport sector
Transport sector emissions in the EU rose by 7% between 1990 and 2020, and before the pandemic, accounted for 22% of all GHG emissions. The sector's emissions steadily grew until 2007, decreased until 2013, and then rose again until 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic led to reduced mobility and lower emissions levels in 2020, similar to those in 1995, but there was a rebound in 2021. Assuming a linear continuation of this trend, emissions reductions would need to accelerate 1.07-fold to meet the EU's target of a 92% reduction by 2050 as outlined in the impact assessment of the EU long-term strategy.
GHG emissions from transport
This indicator shows past development in EU transport sector GHG emissions in comparison to the EU target of reducing CO2 emissions from transport by 92% in 2050 relative to 2005.
Data show an annual decrease of 25 Mt CO2e between 2016 and 2021. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2021 and 2050 needs to be 27 Mt CO2e, which is 1.07 times faster than the current rate of progress.
The indicator includes emissions from the transport sector including international aviation but excluding international shipping.
Objective 2
Reduce carbon intensity in the transport sector
Population growth, which is projected to reach a peak in the EU in 2030, increases the challenge to reduce absolute emissions in the transport sector. The indicator ‘carbon intensity of passenger transport’ shows emissions by passenger kilometre, enabling a look at transport emissions disaggregated from the external demand factor.
Carbon intensity of passenger transport
There is currently no EU-wide aggregated data available on carbon intensity of passenger transport. Data is therefore insufficient to assess the progress of this indicator.
This indicator shows past development in EU emissions intensity of passenger transport.
ENABLERS
Enablers are the supporting conditions and underlying changes needed to meet the objectives in a given building block. They are the opposite of barriers or inhibitors.
Enabler 1
Manage motorised transport demand
Total passenger transport volume
This indicator shows past development in the growth of passenger transport volume in comparison to 2050 targets derived from the most stringent transport activity growth rates by modes outlined in the impact assessment of the EU long term strategy.
The data show an annual decline of 174 billion passenger-km between 2015 and 2020. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2020 and 2050 could increase by 101 billion passenger-km, which means that this indicator is too slow.
The indicator shows total passenger kilometres travelled by trains, passenger cars, motor coaches, buses and trolley, buses, seagoing vessels and aircrafts.
Total freight transport volume
This indicator shows past development in the growth of freight transport volume in comparison to 2050 targets derived from the most stringent transport activity growth rates by modes outlined in the impact assessment of the EU long term strategy.
The data show an annual increase of 38.6 billion tonne-km between 2016 and 2021. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2021 and 2030 must be reduced to 26.8 billion tonne-km, which is 0.7 times lower than the current rate of progress.
The indicator shows total tonnes kilometres transported on railways, roads and inland waterways.
Enabler 2
Shift to public mobility
Share of passenger transport volume by mode
The indicator refers to the share of passenger kilometres split by the modes rail, road, waterways and aviation. The development of the combined indicator was heading in the wrong direction.
Share of passenger transport on road
This indicator shows past development in the share of passenger transport on road in comparison to the EU target of not surpassing a 75% share of passenger transport in 2050.
The data show an annual increase of 1%-points between 2015 and 2020. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2020 and 2050 needs to be an annual decrease of 0.5%-points, which points into the opposite direction than the current rate of progress.
Share of passenger transport on rail
This indicator shows past development in the share of passenger transport on rail in comparison to the EU target of reaching 10% share of passenger transport in 2050.
The data show an annual decrease of 0.18%-points between 2015 and 2020. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2020 and 2050 needs to be an annual increase of 0.15%-points, which points into the opposite direction than the current rate of progress.
This indicator shows past development in the share of passenger transport on waterways in comparison to the EU target of reaching 0.5% share of passenger transport in 2050.
The data show an annual decrease of 0.03%-points between 2015 and 2020. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2020 and 2050 needs to be an annual increase of 0.008%-points, which points into the opposite direction than the current rate of progress.
This indicator shows past development in the share of passenger transport on air in comparison to the EU target of not surpassing a 15% share of passenger transport in 2050.
The data show an annual decrease of 0.9%-points between 2015 and 2020. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2020 and 2050 could increase by 0.3%-points, which means that the indicator is on track.
Share of freight transport volume by mode
The indicator refers to the share of tonnes kilometres split by the modes rail, road and waterways. The development of the combined indicator was heading in the wrong direction.
Share of freight transport on road
This indicator shows past development in the share of freight transport on road in comparison to the EU target of not surpassing a 69% share of passenger transport in 2050.
The data show an annual increase of 0.6%-points between 2015 and 2020. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2020 and 2050 needs to be an annual decrease of 0.3%-points, which points into the opposite direction than the current rate of progress.
Share of freight transport on rail
This indicator shows past development in the share of freight transport on rail in comparison to the EU target of reaching a 25% share of passenger transport in 2050.
The data show an annual decrease of 0.38%-points between 2015 and 2020. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2020 and 2050 needs to be an annual increase of 0.25%-points, which points into the opposite direction than the current rate of progress.
This indicator shows past development in the share of freight transport on waterways in comparison to the EU target of reaching a 7% share of passenger transport in 2050.
The data show an annual decrease of 0.22%-points between 2015 and 2020. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2020 and 2050 needs to be an annual increase of 0.05%-points, which points into the opposite direction than the current rate of progress.
Enabler 3
Implement zero emission and low carbon transport
Share of EVs in passenger car stock
This indicator shows past development in the uptake of electric vehicles in the passenger car fleet in comparison to the EU target of reaching 82% share in electric vehicles in 2050.
Data show an annual increase of 0.41%-points between 2017 and 2022. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2022 and 2050 needs to be 2.8%-points, which is 7 times faster than the current rate of progress.
The indicator shows the cumulative share of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) in the passenger vehicle fleet.
Share of zero emission vehicles (ZEV) in heavy-goods vehicle stock
This indicator shows past development in the uptake of zero emissions vehicles in the heavy-goods vehicle fleet in comparison to the more stringent end of EU target of reaching a combined 40% share in vehicles powered by batteries or fuel cells in 2050.
Data show an annual increase of 0.012%-points between 2017 and 2022. To meet the target, the required annual change between 2022 and 2050 needs to be 1.4%-points, which is 122 times faster than the current rate of progress.
The indicator shows the cumulative share of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel cell vehicles in the trucks fleet.
report
State of EU progress to climate neutrality
The assessment of progress towards climate neutrality shows that the EU is moving in the right direction, but the pace is too slow. The transition to climate neutrality is essential for ensuring a liveable future.
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