Delivering the EU’s 2030 climate and energy targets: Gaps in national contributions and policies

All Member States mention their respective binding 2030 ESR target in their NECP, with two countries exceeding expectations: Luxembourg mentions a 55% emission reduction target that is 5%-points beyond its ESR obligation, and Slovenia mentions a 28% reduction target that is 1%-point beyond requirements.

Half of the Member States do not reach their binding ESR target with the planned or existing policy mix according to their projections. Italy, Denmark, Cyprus, Austria, and Finland expect a gap of between 3 and 7%-points; Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and France of around 10%-points. Ireland expects a gap of more than 16%-points and Malta over 50%-points. In sum, this means that emission reductions of around 130 Mt CO2eq are not accounted for.

The eleven other Member States project that their planned policy mix will be sufficient to meet their 2030 target based on projections with additional or existing measures. Czechia, Portugal and Greece project an overachievement of more than around 10%-points. The other countries’ overachievement ranges from 1%-point to 7%-points. The combined projected overachievement is about 42 Mt CO2eq with the largest contribution coming from Spain with 17 Mt CO2eq. 

Nevertheless, the result in an overall gap of 89 Mt CO2eq across the 22 Member States assessed and means that the EU risks missing its 2030 ESR target by nearly 2%-points, assuming that the five NECPs not yet submitted are aligned with national obligations under the ESR and include a policy mix that is projected to meet national targets.

All Member States state their respective LULUCF targets in their NECPs. Most refer directly to country-specific values outlined in the Annex to the LULUCF-Regulation as the required change in net emissions between the baseline period (average 2016-2018) and 2030. Bulgaria, Hungary, and Italy refer to their absolute net emissions in 2030 considering the baseline data from the Regulation. This means that even if not mentioned explicitly, the stated LULUCF target can be calculated for these countries, which in all cases matches the required change in net emissions. However, it must be noted that if one accounts for updated baseline data from the 2024 GHG inventory submissions, these countries fail to align NECP ambition with their national LULUCF target.

Eleven countries expect that their planned or existing policy mix will not be sufficient to meet their national LULUCF targets. Spain and France show the largest policy gap – both countries also have the highest targets with 5.3 and 6.7 Mt CO2 additional removals in 2030 compared to the baseline, respectively. Both countries expect to miss their target by 14 Mt CO2 and 13 Mt CO2 with their policy mixes. Six of the eleven countries miss their targets by less than 2 Mt CO2. The gap across all submitted NECPs amounts to 57 Mt CO2. 
The eleven other countries project that they can reach their target with their policy mixes. Portugal overachieves its target by roughly 12 Mt CO2, followed by Austria and Denmark, each with almost 4 Mt CO2 more than is required. 
For the EU, a gap of 33 Mt CO2 remains across the 22 Member States. This means that the EU risks missing its 2030 LULUCF target by around 13%, assuming that the five NECPs not yet submitted include projections that meet national targets.

Fourteen Member States communicate a contribution in line with the Renewable Energy Directive with Lithuania, Spain, Greece, Bulgaria, and Germany each contributing up to 6%-points more than necessary. Seven countries state a contribution that is too low with Slovenia contributing 13%-points less than necessary, followed by France (9%-points missing) and Hungary (4%-points missing). Sweden does not provide this information in its NECP. Overall, based on information provided in the NECPs, the national contributions are likely to be sufficient for the EU to achieve its 2030 renewables target. 

Eleven Member States project to achieve their contributions with their planned or existing policy mix. Ten of these countries show an overachievement with Lithuania, Denmark, and Portugal displaying the largest of 11 to 19%-points. Finland expects to exactly meet its contribution. 
Eleven Member States’ projections show that they will not reach their contribution with their suggested policy mix. Slovenia, Sweden, and Luxembourg lag the furthest behind at around 9%-points. Ireland and Austria have a gap close to zero while the other six countries have a gap of around 3 to 4%-points.
Overall, the expected overachievement in ten countries nearly balances gaps in the eleven other countries leaving only a marginal shortfall. This means that the EU could still meet its renewables target, as long as the five NECPs not yet submitted include projections that meet the national necessary contributions. 
 

National contributions to reducing final energy consumption are in line with the EED in fifteen countries. Seven countries provide an insufficient contribution. The shortcoming is largest for Spain in absolute terms at 5 Mtoe followed by Hungary with 2 Mtoe, with the remaining five countries falling short by less than 1 Mtoe. These countries derive their contributions from their projections. No country contributes beyond what is necessary. This means that in sum national contributions are insufficient for the EU.
 

For final energy consumption, the policy gap is significant in all but four countries. Policy mixes in Portugal, Cyprus, Slovenia, and Romania are the only ones projected to be effective enough to meet the necessary national contributions – these countries, however, do not overachieve their contribution. Germany and France show the highest absolute policy gap of 31 Mtoe and 12 Mtoe, respectively, and Sweden and Denmark display the highest discrepancies relative to the necessary contribution at 33% and 24%, respectively. This means that the EU could miss its 2030 final energy consumption target by 86 Mtoe or 13%. 
 

Fifteen countries fall short in their contributions to reducing primary energy consumption. The largest contribution gap comes from Spain with 16 Mtoe followed by Italy with 4 Mtoe; all other countries have a gap of less than 3 Mtoe. Six countries state a contribution in line with the EED, including Finland, which mentions that its contribution would be according to the EED and references an upcoming strategy that will define the contribution. Bulgaria is the only country that provides a national contribution to reducing EU primary energy consumption that exceed expectations (by 1 Mtoe). This means that in sum national contributions are insufficient for the EU.

The projections with additional or existing measures for primary energy consumption show that almost all presented policy mixes are insufficient to meet the necessary contributions, except in Bulgaria and Romania. However, overachievement in these two countries is below 1 Mtoe. Germany, France, Spain, and Italy deliver a combined policy gap of 114 Mtoe, of which Germany accounts for roughly half. Luxembourg and Sweden do not provide information on the projection outcome. The Netherlands provides a large range of projected energy levels in 2030, highlighting the high uncertainty that exists around energy consumption projections. Still, the projections show that with the current existing and planned national policy mixes, the EU is likely to miss its primary energy consumption target by around 142 Mtoe or 17%.

Based on the assessment of the submitted NECPs, only half of the 22 Member States are well on track to phasing out direct subsidies to fossil fuels by 2025. Ten countries state that they have no direct subsidies anymore. Luxembourg states that its temporary subsidies to help households in the energy price crisis expired at the end of 2024. Latvia plans to phase out all direct subsidies by 2030. Greece and Austria provide a phase-out date at least for some fossil fuel subsidies. 
The status of direct fossil fuel subsidies and any plans for phasing them out is unclear in four NECPs: Malta, Romania, Spain, and Portugal. 
Cyprus, Ireland, Czechia, and Lithuania state that direct fossil fuel subsidies exist, but fail to outline a clear timeline or actions for phase out, including a date. Ireland still provides support to fuel and electricity bills for households.

The phase-out of indirect subsidies, including tax reliefs and benefits, has not happened yet in any of the countries assessed. Latvia plans to phase out all remaining indirect subsidies by 2030 at the latest. The Latvian NECP provides a description and table on national subsidies. 
Seven countries plan to phase out some of their indirect fossil fuel subsidies by 2030. This includes Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Portugal. This being said, Germany and Finland provide no date for the other listed subsidies. France and the Netherlands provide only examples of subsidies they want to phase out.
All other countries either (1) do not clearly describe existing indirect subsidies or (2) do not mention a phase-out date. For example, Denmark provides no information but refers to an ongoing process, in which an overview of the country’s indirect fossil subsidies is being prepared. Ireland provides a description of national subsidies but mentions no phase-out date. Italy also provides a description and refers to an ongoing process to eliminate harmful and inefficient subsidies generally. Spain recognises the need to align subsidies with climate mitigation goals but only states that no new hydrocarbon exploitation concessions will be granted. Hungary states that the country is in line with the OECD average regarding indirect subsidies but gives no further insights for assessment nor a phase-out plan.