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EU must pick up speed on climate action, net zero watchdog warns

Eike Karola Velten • Aleksander Śniegocki

European Climate Neutrality Observatory launches to ensure European Green Deal delivers on climate neutrality

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  • Newly launched European Climate Neutrality Observatory (ECNO) set up to ensure the right monitoring and governance processes are in place for successful delivery of European Green Deal 
  • First comprehensive report tracking the EU’s measurable progress towards climate neutrality across society shows positive movement in most sectors and cross-cutting areas 
  • Report warns that observed pace of transition still too slow to achieve stated targets, and highlights areas most in need of urgent action
  • ECNO hopeful that progress under the European Green Deal will help close the gap between the EU’s climate ambitions and measured progress
  • Report comes ahead of EU Commission’s first official assessment of progress to climate neutrality in September 2023.

A new independent net zero watchdog, the European Climate Neutrality Observatory (ECNO), has launched to help ensure the EU gets and remains on track with the delivery of a resilient, climate neutral future.

Composed of some of Europe’s leading research organisations, with expertise spanning the fields of climate policy, governance, economics and finance, ECNO aims to support and hold EU institutions to account in the successful delivery of the European Green Deal.

ECNO’s first comprehensive report tracking the EU’s measurable progress towards climate neutrality across society is based on analysis of available data mainly up to 2021 - the year in which major policies to implement the European Green Deal were proposed. The report finds that, while most sectors and cross-cutting areas of Europe's economy are orienting in the right direction, the pace of change is too slow to achieve Europe's stated targets.

ECNO experts are hopeful that progress in passing and implementing new climate neutrality policies under the European Green Deal political project will help to accelerate the transition. All eyes are on the EU to see to what extent these policies deliver on the necessary progress towards climate neutrality.

The flagship report, State of EU Progress to Climate Neutrality, looks at observed changes across a comprehensive set of over 100 economic and social indicators, and compares them against EU benchmarks to judge real-world progress towards climate neutrality, as well as assessing the factors that will enable future progress. This approach to tracking allows ECNO to inform EU policymakers on areas where further action is the most urgent.

ECNO identifies governance as an area where progress is on track in terms of setting up a framework for climate neutral planning, policymaking, and monitoring, but stresses it is now up to both the European Commission and Member States to implement these processes to their full potential as well as to evolve the framework over time.

Some of the areas highlighted as needing greater attention in the report include:

 

Finance

Counterproductive economic incentives remain in place, with EU member states spending €46.2 billion on fossil fuel subsidies in 2020, a number which then rocketed in 2021 and 2022 in response to the energy market crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the EU economy consistently invests too little public and private capital into climate investments. This endangers the entire transition as today’s climate investments enable tomorrow’s emissions reduction.  

Electricity

While progress in reducing the overall greenhouse gas emissions intensity of electricity generation is on track, progress in decreasing the share of fossil fuels and increasing the share of renewable energy is too slow. Fossil fuel power generation decreased by just 1.3% per year between 2016 and 2021, compared to a required decrease of 2.5% per year. Renewables grew at a rate of 1.5% between 2016 and 2021, and now needs to more than double to 3.2%. Electricity demand is set to increase due to electrification in other sectors, meaning this sector will play a critical role in driving the transition. 

Buildings

Building emissions cuts need to go 7.5 times faster, through doubling the pace of energy efficient renovations. The share of renewable energy in heating and cooling needs to increase by 6.8 times the current rate to realise a full phase-out of fossil fuels by 2040 as proposed by the Commission. This would contribute to reaching the target of at least 60% emission reductions by 2030 in the buildings sector in comparison to 2015 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This move by policymakers acknowledges the key role buildings should play in achieving EU climate goals.

Just transition

2020 saw a pause in the reduction of poverty and social exclusion rates. However, employment in the green sector is continuing to grow, with increases of 3.7% in the environmental goods and services sector between 2015 and 2020, and 1.3% in the renewable energy resources sector between 2016 and 2021.  Moving forward, the EU must accelerate green investments to spur green jobs creation, which will help to compensate for those lost in the fossil-fuel industry, and enable opportunities and growth.

The report also points to large gaps in data collection and progress monitoring that are hindering the EU’s ability to make informed policy interventions.

The EU Commission will release its first assessment of progress to climate neutrality in September 2023. ECNO’s findings serve as an independent accountability check against the EU’s own assessment. The Commission will not repeat the exercise again until 2028, which ECNO is concerned will leave a long gap in which necessary course corrections may be neglected, with a lack of granular and comprehensive analysis to inform decision making. 

Aleksander Sniegocki, co-author of the report and Chief Executive Officer at Reform Institute, an ECNO consortium member and a leading environmental research organisation, said: 

“There are grounds to expect further signs of progress, with the European Green Deal ambitions embedded in Fit for 55 package now making it through into legislation, the fruits of which we will begin to see in the data over the coming years. But we can’t afford to be complacent. The climate crisis calls for a big picture, joined-up approach to ensure we’re not only meeting our short term emissions targets but also laying the groundwork to remain on track in coming decades.”

Pascal Lamy, Former European Commissioner for Trade, said: 

“The European Climate Neutrality Observatory is a much needed initiative to bring greater transparency, integrity, and accountability to Europe’s climate transition. This new report from ECNO gives us a strong baseline to measure progress against as the EU Green Deal policies get implemented in the coming years. There is an urgent need to re-direct financial flows towards clean technologies and services to put the EU on track to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.”


Sharan Burrow, Former General Secretary of the International Trade Union Confederation, said:

 “I fully support the ECNO initiative that will monitor delivery of the EU Green Deal and Europe’s transition to climate neutrality. We are at the start of the EU’s transition, initiatives like the Just Transition Fund can help bring sustainable development to carbon-intensive regions, but its implementation is far too slow. ECNO’s independent analysis and reporting will help people track delivery as we begin to implement the different policy measures agreed in the last few years. Prioritising support to disadvantaged households to tackle energy poverty and accelerate green job creation will be a key measure of success to track in delivering the climate transition in Europe.”


Caio Koch-Weser, Chair of the Advisory Council of the European Climate Foundation, said: 

“The European Climate Neutrality Observatory is a much needed initiative to bring greater transparency, integrity, and accountability to Europe’s climate transition. This new report from ECNO gives us a strong baseline to measure progress against as the EU Green Deal policies get implemented in the coming years. There is an urgent need to re-direct financial flows towards clean technologies and services to put the EU on track to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.”

Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation, said: 

“Europe has been at the forefront of the global effort to address the climate crisis. We have set ambitious targets and implemented groundbreaking policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to renewable energy sources. We must now shift our focus to the crucial task of implementation, accountability, and monitoring. The establishment of the European Climate Neutrality Observatory reflects our unwavering dedication to transparency, implementation, accountability, and monitoring in the race towards climate neutrality. It stands as a beacon of hope, guiding our continent towards a greener, more sustainable future for generations to come. The time for words and commitments is behind us. The time for action is now. Let us march forward with determination, ambition, and unity, confident in the knowledge that our shared destiny is within our grasp.”

Paul Polman, former CEO of Unilever, said: 

“The urgency of the climate crisis demands unprecedented action, and the fact is we are still not moving fast enough. Indeed, in some areas we are now going in the wrong direction. While bold commitments are a critical first step, we need as much accountability as ambition to turn these pledges into reality. The European Climate Neutrality Observatory will enable better scrutiny and evaluation of the progress made across Europe, and will help industry get on track. Trust and credible data must be at the heart of accelerating towards a clean, resilient and inclusive economy, and so must leadership. In this spirit, I hope business will fully embrace the Observatory, and today we’re urging the European Commission to strengthen its monitoring mechanisms too"

 

ECNO aims to help the EU achieve climate neutrality by providing scientifically rigorous analysis of economy-wide progress and an impartial check on EU climate policy processes. As an independent observatory, ECNO seeks to inspire the uptake of better monitoring practices and policy making, as well as greater transparency on the EU’s transition to climate neutrality by presenting a comprehensive picture of the whole economy. 

 

About the methodology behind ECNO
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